Basic principle of betting odds

First of all, betting odds are based on mathematical considerations or calculations. The concept makes use of the principle of probability.

Different formats are used to indicate betting odds depending on the betting provider and, above all, the respective country. In Germany, the decimal odds (e.g. 2.50) are mostly used to indicate odds.

But what does a certain odds actually mean? From the tipper’s point of view, the betting odds essentially provide two pieces of information:

It indicates how much money you get if you win
It gives an idea of ​​how likely it is that an event will occur

To illustrate this, we use our example odds of 2.50 below.
calculate profit

The profit from a bet always depends on two factors and is calculated using the following formula:

Profit = stake x betting odds .

With a bet of €20 and a betting odds of 2.50, the possible profit is €50.

From a tipper’s point of view, you should ask yourself one crucial question before placing your bet:

What is the probability that event X will occur?

Because this question is ultimately also the basis for determining betting odds on the part of sports betting providers.
calculate probability

The specified betting odds also provide an indication of this. As mentioned above, bookmakers determine their betting odds based on probabilities. This means betting providers calculate or determine the respective probability for every possible betting option they offer.

For example, in football bets, factors such as the respective form of the teams, general quality of the squad, venue, and much more. analyzed and used for assessment.

The probabilities are then converted into a betting odds. This is done with the following formula:

Betting odds = 100/probability of event X .

For our example odds of 2.50, we can calculate the approximate probability that the betting provider used as a basis for event X:

2.50 = 100/probability of event X
Probability of event X = 100/2.50 in percent
probability = 40%

Basically, this results in the well-known principle: the higher the betting odds, the less likely it is that your bet will work.
Fair betting odds vs real betting odds

In addition, it should be noted in this regard that when specifying the actual betting odds, a profit margin is also taken into account in addition to the probability of the different events.

From a bookmaker’s point of view, this represents a security in order not to make any losses in the long term. A distinction is made in this regard between fair and real betting odds.

As an example, let’s look at a fictitious 3-way bet for the match between Schalke and Dortmund. There are a total of 3 betting options: Schalke win, draw, Dortmund win.

According to the above explanation, a probability is determined for each of these events and the corresponding betting odds are then calculated (the sum of the probabilities must be 100%):

Victory Schalke: 100/45 = 2.22
Draw: 100/20 = 5.00
Win Dortmund = 100/35 = 2.86

It is now a question of the fair betting odds. What does that mean? Assuming all wagers placed on the game were spread across the three bets according to their respective probabilities. Then 메이저사이트 from losing bets would have to be paid out to the winners and bookmakers would not make a profit.

For this reason, the fair betting odds are converted into real betting odds. To do this, the fair odds are multiplied by a factor of less than 1.

Real odds = fair odds x (n < 1)

In our example, the final real odds could look like this:

Victory Schalke: 2.22 x 0.95 = 2.11
Draw: 5.00 x 0.95 = 4.75
Victory Dortmund: 2.86 x 0.95 = 2.72

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *